Schwanengesänge

Unfair to Black Swans

Reacting to recent events as if they were “black swans” is false on at least two fronts. First, the metaphor is simply incorrect. “Black swans” are supposed to be totally unexpected phenomena. Yet real black swans have been swimming around Australia for quite a while, and were recorded by a British zoologist in 1790. So rather than serve as a metaphor for the improbable, they betray the ignorance of those who cast them in that role.

More to the point, the epidemic and related events cited by Trump and others as “totally unexpected” were not only predicted as possible but as highly likely developments. In this case, the level of ignorance must be considered willful blindness.

Many commentators have introduced potential events occurring between now and Jan. 20. In the spirit of scenario spinning, I offer my own list of possible developments that could impact the political scene to a greater or lesser extent. None of these are “black swans,” but events that have some level of probability. 

Please note: I am not “rooting” for any of these. 

A Litany of Possible Events

1. Ruth Bader Ginsberg dies or is otherwise forced to retire. Many fear this, knowing that an anti-abortion candidate is sure to be nominated and approved even if after the election but before a new Senate is sworn in.

2. A conservative justice dies or is otherwise forced to retire. While this would not shift the balance of the court, a younger anti-abortion justice could become a court fixture for decades.

3. Jimmy Carter passes away. This could have a multi-fold impact. Considerable media attention would be devoted to his accomplishments both as president (greater than is generally acknowledged) and humanitarian. Also, a consideration of his character, which is so much more admirable than that of the present occupant of the White House. All of this attention would, of course, pull the focus away from Trump as the McCain and senior Bush’s funerals did. 

Then there are the funerial optics. The Clintons, Bushes, and Obamas will be seen huddled, maybe even sitting together. Trump, if he attends, will be the odd man out. Will he greet his predecessors? Shake Obama’s hand after accusing him of the crime of the century? He’ll decide based on how he thinks his base will react. But the nation will see just how removed this man is from the traditions of normality, decency, and civility.

4. Several Republican senators get seriously ill. Many of them have been attending White House meetings without adequate masking and social distancing, and continue to exhibit less than perfect behavior in their own court. If one catches the virus and spreads it to his peers, we could have an outbreak forcing some to bed and others to self-quarantine, in the process losing a voting majority. Which means Senate activity would grind to a halt, and no more incompetent judges and officials would be approved.

5. The second peak this summer causes a second lock-down. Rising infection/death tolls are fairly likely as many states open up without the required testing/tracing infrastructure in place, and all too many blasé citizens discard masks and social distancing. While the president has vowed we would never go back to a lock-down, many governors, mayors, and irate citizens might demand a renewed shelter-in-place. The economy would further erode, and the cheer leaders for opening up might even be blamed.

6. A second wave in the fall might have the same impact. Timing is critical here, since it its impact on the election will depend on how hard it hits before then.

7. A real breakthrough in either Covid-19 treatment or a vaccine. This would be terrific for everyone on the planet. It would no doubt help Trump, who would receive (and take) credit, although it’s unlikely to happen before the election. While it might embolden those who “knew” the pandemic would end soon, popular attitudes will be largely shaped by the speed with which these solutions become readily available.

8. Emergence of a real foreign crisis. The probability of such an event increases daily as foreign leaders continue to assess Trump’s weaknesses and incompetence, and our focus on the pandemic and recession provide ample opportunities for mischief. There are too many possibilities to list; here are just a few.

a) China: Steps up aggressive action in the South China Sea; Uses military or enhanced police force to subdue Hong Kong; Threatens Taiwan.

b) Russia: Increases military presence in Ukraine; Invades the Baltics; Increases military role in Syria and/or Yemen.

c) Iran: A rogue hardliner force attacks a US ship or other target. Or a desperate government does the same as the economy sinks even further.

d) North Korea: Tests a missile that can reach the US, and/or develops a nuclear warhead.

e) Israel/Palestine: An Israeli annexation move provokes a major response from a wide range of players and renewed terrorist attacks around the world.

f) Saudi Arabia: MBS (Mister Bone Saw) overplays his hand in a show of strength, dragging the US into another crisis that pits the Administration against everyone else; or MBS faces a real internal challenge that ousts him or provokes a vicious reaction.

g. UK/EU: The continued economic and health crises caused by the pandemic may produce a crisis in their respective relations with the US. While Brexit seems to have stepped off center stage, the clock is still ticking and there is no resolution on key issues, and Boris’ position seems to be eroding like Trump’s. 

9. Another summer of violent weather stemming from global warming. On top of the pandemic, this would stretch our ability to respond beyond the breaking point, and further demonstrate the inadequate planning, unwillingness to prepare, and refusal to accept the challenge posed by global warming. Much of the blame will be placed on the Administration, and those governors and other officials who simply fail in the face of disaster.

10. Killings of minority members by police trigger widespread protests, leading to increasingly violent confrontations between protesters and police/national guard. Further national divisions would result, between those calling for justice and those demanding “law and order.” 

As I said, none of these are “black swan events” in the usual sense of the term, nor are they certain like the migratory patterns of birds who always return to the same habitat at the same time. Rather these are possible developments enjoying a wide range of probabilities I would not dare to assign.

Feel free to add your own.