Monthly Archives: May 2020

Unfair to Black Swans

Reacting to recent events as if they were “black swans” is false on at least two fronts. First, the metaphor is simply incorrect. “Black swans” are supposed to be totally unexpected phenomena. Yet real black swans have been swimming around Australia for quite a while, and were recorded by a British zoologist in 1790. So rather than serve as a metaphor for the improbable, they betray the ignorance of those who cast them in that role.

More to the point, the epidemic and related events cited by Trump and others as “totally unexpected” were not only predicted as possible but as highly likely developments. In this case, the level of ignorance must be considered willful blindness.

Many commentators have introduced potential events occurring between now and Jan. 20. In the spirit of scenario spinning, I offer my own list of possible developments that could impact the political scene to a greater or lesser extent. None of these are “black swans,” but events that have some level of probability. 

Please note: I am not “rooting” for any of these. 

A Litany of Possible Events

1. Ruth Bader Ginsberg dies or is otherwise forced to retire. Many fear this, knowing that an anti-abortion candidate is sure to be nominated and approved even if after the election but before a new Senate is sworn in.

2. A conservative justice dies or is otherwise forced to retire. While this would not shift the balance of the court, a younger anti-abortion justice could become a court fixture for decades.

3. Jimmy Carter passes away. This could have a multi-fold impact. Considerable media attention would be devoted to his accomplishments both as president (greater than is generally acknowledged) and humanitarian. Also, a consideration of his character, which is so much more admirable than that of the present occupant of the White House. All of this attention would, of course, pull the focus away from Trump as the McCain and senior Bush’s funerals did. 

Then there are the funerial optics. The Clintons, Bushes, and Obamas will be seen huddled, maybe even sitting together. Trump, if he attends, will be the odd man out. Will he greet his predecessors? Shake Obama’s hand after accusing him of the crime of the century? He’ll decide based on how he thinks his base will react. But the nation will see just how removed this man is from the traditions of normality, decency, and civility.

4. Several Republican senators get seriously ill. Many of them have been attending White House meetings without adequate masking and social distancing, and continue to exhibit less than perfect behavior in their own court. If one catches the virus and spreads it to his peers, we could have an outbreak forcing some to bed and others to self-quarantine, in the process losing a voting majority. Which means Senate activity would grind to a halt, and no more incompetent judges and officials would be approved.

5. The second peak this summer causes a second lock-down. Rising infection/death tolls are fairly likely as many states open up without the required testing/tracing infrastructure in place, and all too many blasé citizens discard masks and social distancing. While the president has vowed we would never go back to a lock-down, many governors, mayors, and irate citizens might demand a renewed shelter-in-place. The economy would further erode, and the cheer leaders for opening up might even be blamed.

6. A second wave in the fall might have the same impact. Timing is critical here, since it its impact on the election will depend on how hard it hits before then.

7. A real breakthrough in either Covid-19 treatment or a vaccine. This would be terrific for everyone on the planet. It would no doubt help Trump, who would receive (and take) credit, although it’s unlikely to happen before the election. While it might embolden those who “knew” the pandemic would end soon, popular attitudes will be largely shaped by the speed with which these solutions become readily available.

8. Emergence of a real foreign crisis. The probability of such an event increases daily as foreign leaders continue to assess Trump’s weaknesses and incompetence, and our focus on the pandemic and recession provide ample opportunities for mischief. There are too many possibilities to list; here are just a few.

a) China: Steps up aggressive action in the South China Sea; Uses military or enhanced police force to subdue Hong Kong; Threatens Taiwan.

b) Russia: Increases military presence in Ukraine; Invades the Baltics; Increases military role in Syria and/or Yemen.

c) Iran: A rogue hardliner force attacks a US ship or other target. Or a desperate government does the same as the economy sinks even further.

d) North Korea: Tests a missile that can reach the US, and/or develops a nuclear warhead.

e) Israel/Palestine: An Israeli annexation move provokes a major response from a wide range of players and renewed terrorist attacks around the world.

f) Saudi Arabia: MBS (Mister Bone Saw) overplays his hand in a show of strength, dragging the US into another crisis that pits the Administration against everyone else; or MBS faces a real internal challenge that ousts him or provokes a vicious reaction.

g. UK/EU: The continued economic and health crises caused by the pandemic may produce a crisis in their respective relations with the US. While Brexit seems to have stepped off center stage, the clock is still ticking and there is no resolution on key issues, and Boris’ position seems to be eroding like Trump’s. 

9. Another summer of violent weather stemming from global warming. On top of the pandemic, this would stretch our ability to respond beyond the breaking point, and further demonstrate the inadequate planning, unwillingness to prepare, and refusal to accept the challenge posed by global warming. Much of the blame will be placed on the Administration, and those governors and other officials who simply fail in the face of disaster.

10. Killings of minority members by police trigger widespread protests, leading to increasingly violent confrontations between protesters and police/national guard. Further national divisions would result, between those calling for justice and those demanding “law and order.” 

As I said, none of these are “black swan events” in the usual sense of the term, nor are they certain like the migratory patterns of birds who always return to the same habitat at the same time. Rather these are possible developments enjoying a wide range of probabilities I would not dare to assign.

Feel free to add your own.

A Problem > 1

Many of us recognize that a child occupies the Oval Office. Not a cute, well-behaved, adorable child that you might find in a heart-warming 1930s movie, but a nasty, selfish, willful, and destructive child who bucks any kind of authority. Worse, a classic bully who operates without restraints. 

But it’s also worth considering that we have become, in a many ways, a nation of children. Not just happily irresponsible, like a pack of Peter Pan’s lost boys, but often cruel and vindictive. This is, of course, unfair. I’m really talking about a sizable portion of the population, probably a minority, but one that has taken over many of our institutions and has set not only the tone of discourse but the national agenda.

The most glaring example of this childishness is the refusal to accept the reality of the pandemic, especially those who gleefully refuse to wear masks or follow social distancing. They justify their resistance with claims their rights are being infringed, the threat is exaggerated, conspiracy theories, and a false sense they are somehow immune. But what’s really behind it is a joyful exuberance in defying authority.

It’s like when a parent tells a child not to play in the street because of the traffic and he runs out the door anyway, yelling “Try and stop me!” Yes, a part of him may realize there’s a risk, and even that some other kids may get hurt. But not me—I’m too fast and smart. And anyway, the thrill of defying authority is too great to resist.

Historical Roots

Resistance to authority has deep roots in the American psyche, and is replayed over and over again in popular films and stories in which an everyman/woman is forced to confront corrupt officials or even agents of a national conspiracy, or powerful corporations. And usually, the antihero somehow prevails. 

This national trait complements the myth of rugged individualism, whereby strong-willed, independent pioneers conquered a wilderness and founded a country, conveniently forgetting this incredible land grab could never have happened without the cavalry to back it up.

But this diminution of governments’ role, along with a natural suspicion of all authority, has produced a childish mentality. The anti-tax movement promoted the idea that “government” was taking “your” money for its own purposes. You could certainly spend it better. This coupled with the belief in massive waste and fraud, and also in the incompetence of the public sector encapsulated in Reagan’s memorable phrase.

The Prevalence of Magical Thinking

Of course, this is nonsense. Taxes are the fuel that enables governments to function and civilizations to flourish. Only children believe they can get what they want without really paying for it. It’s magical thinking.

So, what do these adult children want? They want the local government to build the roads and bridges they travel on, provide schools for their kids and the basic services (police, fire, traffic lights, etc.) they need. And they expect the national government to protect the country, facilitate trade and commerce, and provide other services, like mail delivery. And they are convinced they can get all this on the cheap, 

Moreover, they want clean air and water and food without poisons, but oppose government regulations that would make this happen. More magical thinking.  

Hoarding the Cookie Jar

But they don’t want to pay for things that benefit society as a whole, or that only benefit others, and certainly not for those whom they do not believe are deserving—the poor who won’t work, the elderly who didn’t save enough for their “golden years,” and the physically or mentally challenged who are just a burden on society. 

Here, magical thinking—I can get what I want for very little—combines with a selfishness that, miraculously, is converted into a virtue—I want to save these lazy good-for-nothings from their dependence. But it also fuses with the rejection of any kind of responsibility—for the greater social good, or for those less fortunate.

Defying and Denying

The child also emerges in the willful defiance of authority (“you can’t make me!”) and the stubborn denial of unpleasant truths, especially about risks, where bravado trumps common sense. But the defiance goes beyond downplaying threats and assuming unnecessary risks. It unleashes a destructive impulse targeting social norms, civility, fairness, rationality, authoritative sources of information, the rights of others, and ultimately others as well. And it does so without taking any responsibility for the results, the ultimate definition of childishness.

This group elected the President because of his own destructive impulses, and now they cheer each other on as they continuously gut the legal and social norms of society.

So what we have now is a perfect storm: a spoiled child in the White House, a mob of unruly adults with a mind-set akin to the children in Lord for the Flies, numerous officials elected by this mob or selected by the President who share many of these childish traits, a pack of adult officials who know better but still enable the child President in pursuit of their own agendas or careers, and a national crisis that demands leadership at every level and a truly united citizenry.